哈佛持续了76年的研究：什么样的人最可能成为人生赢家？答案出乎预料

著名的“格兰特研究 (The Grant Study)” 研究的是“什么样的人，最可能成为人生赢家”——哈佛大学这项研究已经持续了 76年，花费超过2000万美元。主持这项研究的整整 32年的心理学者乔治·瓦利恩特（ George Vaillant）说，“温暖亲密的关系是美好生活的最重要开场。”

故事从1938年开始。

那一年，时任哈佛大学卫生系主任的阿列 · 博克（Arlie Bock ）教授觉得，整个研究界都在关心 “人为什么会生病/失败/潦倒” ，怎么没有人研究下“人怎样才能健康/成功/幸福 ”？

博克提出了一项雄心勃勃的研究计划，打算追踪一批人从青少年到人生终结，关注他们的高低转折，记录他们的状态境遇，点滴不漏，即时记录，最终将他们的一生转化为一个答案 ——什么样的人，最可能成为人生赢家。

人生赢家的标准十分苛刻。主持这项研究的整整32年的心理学者乔治·瓦利恩特（George Vaillant）说，赢家必须“十项全能”：十项标准里有两条跟收入有关，四条和身心健康有关，四条和亲密关系和社会支持有关。譬如说，必须80岁后仍身体健康、心智清明（没活到80岁的自然不算赢家）；60-75岁间与孩子关系紧密；65-75岁间除了妻子儿女外仍有其他社会支持（亲友熟人）等； 60-85岁间拥有良好的婚姻关系；收入水平居于前25%。

这就是著名的“格兰特研究 (The Grant Study)”。研究名字缘于最初的赞助者，慈善家威廉·格兰特（ William T. Grant）。如今，这项研究已经持续了整整76年，花费超过2000万美元。

从1939年到1944年间，这项研究选择了268名当年正在哈佛就读的本科生作为研究对象。这批人已经站在美国年青人的巅峰，他们有着光明的未来，得享成功与长寿的几率很大。这正是格兰特研究需要的——研究对象要活得够长，否则就不算 “笑到最后” ，要足够成功，否则怎能算 “笑得最好” ？

入选者当年都在19岁上下，全部是家境良好的美国籍白人男性，身心健康，仪表堂堂——事实上，每个入选者都经过严格的体格“选美 ”，研究者倾向于挑选猿臂蜂腰者，因为一开始的猜测是， “富有男性气概者”更可能拥有幸福人生。

每隔2年，这批人会接到调查问卷，他们需要回答自己身体是否健康， 精神是否正常，婚姻质量如何，事业成功失败，退休后是否幸福。研究者根据他们交还的问卷给他们分级， E是情形最糟，A是情形最好。不过，光是自我评定可不够。

每隔5年，会有专业的医师去评估他们的身心健康指标。每隔5-10年，研究者还会亲自前去拜访这批人，通过面谈采访，更深入地了解他们目前的亲密关系、事业收入、人生满意度，以及他们在人生的每个阶段是否适应良好。

这批人可谓“史上被研究得最透彻的一群小白鼠 ”，他们经历了二战、经济萧条、经济复苏、金融海啸，他们结婚、离婚、升职、当选、失败、东山再起、一蹶不振，有人顺利退休安度晚年，有人自毁健康早早夭亡。

最终，这268人里确实涌现了不少成功人士，迄今有4个美国参议员，1个州长，甚至1个美国总统——约翰·肯尼迪，不过，肯尼迪的研究档案早就被政府单独拿走，预计到2040年才有可能解密。

其余267份人生档案又得出了怎样的结论呢？

首先，以下因素不太影响 “人生成功” ：最早猜测的 “男子气概” 没用，智商超过110后就不再影响收入水平，家庭的经济社会地位高低也影响不大，外向内向无所谓，也不是非得有特别高超的社交能力，家族里有酗酒史和抑郁史也不是问题。

真正能影响 “十项全能” ，帮你迈向繁盛人生的，是如下因素：自己不酗酒不吸烟，锻炼充足，保持健康体重，以及，童年被爱，共情能力高，青年时能建立亲密关系。

如下数据可能会让你大吃一惊 ——

与母亲关系亲密者，一年平均多挣8.7万美元。跟兄弟姐妹相亲相爱者，一年平均多挣5.1万美元。在“亲密关系”这项上得分最高的58个人，平均年薪是24.3万美元。得分最低的31人，则平均年薪没有超过10.2万美元。只要能在30岁前找到 “真爱”—— 无论是真的爱情、友情还是亲情，就能大大增加你 “人生繁盛” 的几率。

乍一看，感觉哈佛用76年熬了一碗浓浓的鸡汤——人生成功的关键是……“爱”？这答案看上去太过普通，以至于让人难以置信。

但瓦利恩特说，爱、温暖和亲密关系，会直接影响一个人的 “应对机制” 。他认为，每个人都会不断遇到意外和挫折，不同的是每个人采取的应对手段，“近乎疯狂类”的猜疑恐惧是最差的；稍好一点的是 “不够成熟类” 比如消极、易怒；然后是“神经质类 ”如压抑、情感抽离；最后是 “成熟健康类” 如无私、幽默和升华。

一个活在爱里的人，在面对挫折时，他可能会选择拿自己开个玩笑，和朋友一起运动流汗宣泄，接受家人的抚慰和鼓励……这些“应对方式 ”，能帮一个人迅速进入健康振奋的良性循环。反之，一个“缺爱 ”的人，则遇到挫折时往往得不到援手、需要独自疗伤，而酗酒吸烟等常见的 “自我疗伤方式”，则是早死的主要诱因。

瓦利恩特说，“温暖亲密的关系是美好生活的最重要开场。”当然，并不是每个人都能幸运拥有美好童年，但好消息是，不论你今年几岁，都有机会“在爱里获得重生 ”。哈佛那批人里，一个化名卡米尔的入选者直到35岁才第一次知道被别人全心关爱是什么感受——当时他因肺结核住院14个月，而医护人员给了他一直渴望的爱与温暖。

此后，卡米尔从一个自杀未遂的神经症患者，变成了一个负责的医生、丈夫和父亲，他的家人、病人、下属和朋友都衷心爱他，最终他在82岁时攀登阿尔卑斯山的过程里因心脏病突发去世，许多人出席了他的葬礼，向他致意告别——虽然开场并非最佳，但收尾时确实是段丰盛繁茂的成功人生。

The Grant Study is part of the Study of Adult Development at Harvard Medical School. It is a 75-year longitudinal study of 268 physically- and mentally-healthy Harvard college sophomores from the classes of 1939–1944. It has run in tandem with a study called “The Glueck Study,” which included a second cohort of 456 disadvantaged nondelinquent inner-city youths who grew up in Boston neighborhoods between 1940 and 1945.[1] The subjects were all male and of American nationality. The men continue to be studied to this day. The men were evaluated at least every two years by questionnaires, information from their physicians, and in many cases by personal interviews. Information was gathered about their mental and physical health, career enjoyment, retirement experience and marital quality. The goal of the study was to identify predictors of healthy aging.

The study, its methodology and results are described in three books by a principal investigator in the study, George Vaillant. The first book[2] describes the study up to a time when the men were 47 years of age, and the second book[3] to when the inner-city men were 70 years old and the Harvard group were eighty. In 2012, Vaillant and Harvard University Press published Triumphs of Experience, sharing more findings from the Grant Study.[4]

The study is part of The Study of Adult Development, which is now under the direction of Dr. Robert J. Waldinger[5] at Massachusetts General Hospital. The study included four members who ran for the U.S. Senate. One served in a presidential Cabinet, and one was President John F. Kennedy.[6]

The study is unique partly because of the long time span of the cohort, and also partly because of the high social status of some of the study participants.

Contents
Main results Edit

George Vaillant, who directed the study for more than three decades, has published[7] a summation of the key insights the study has yielded:

Alcoholism is a disorder of great destructive power.
Alcoholism was the main cause of divorce between the Grant Study men and their wives.
Strongly correlates with neurosis and depression, which tended to follow alcohol abuse, rather than precede it.
Together with associated cigarette smoking, was the single greatest contributor to their early morbidity and death.
Financial success depends on warmth of relationships and, above a certain level, not on intelligence.
Those who scored highest on measurements of “warm relationships” earned an average of $141,000 a year more at their peak salaries (usually between ages 55 and 60).
No significant difference in maximum income earned by men with IQs in the 110–115 range and men with IQs higher than 150.
Political mindedness correlates with intimacy: Aging liberals have way more sex.
The most-conservative men ceased sexual relations at an average age of 68.
The most-liberal men had active sex lives into their 80s.
The warmth of childhood relationship with mothers matters long into adulthood:
Men who had “warm” childhood relationships with their mothers earned an average of $87,000 more a year than men whose mothers were uncaring.
Men who had poor childhood relationships with their mothers were much more likely to develop dementia when old.
Late in their professional lives, the men’s boyhood relationships with their mothers—but not with their fathers—were associated with effectiveness at work.
The warmth of childhood relationships with mothers had no significant bearing on “life satisfaction” at 75.
The warmth of childhood relationship with fathers correlated with:
Lower rates of adult anxiety.
Greater enjoyment of vacations.
Increased “life satisfaction” at age 75.
Vaillant’s main conclusion is that “warmth of relationships throughout life have the greatest positive impact on ‘life satisfaction'”. Put differently, Vaillant says the study shows: “Happiness is love. Full stop.”

作者｜游识猷 来源｜科学松鼠会 11/11/2015